— 27 December 2024 —

Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition

The consequences of climate change, nature loss, and other changes to the Earth system will impact societies’ ability to tackle the causes of these problems. There are extensive agendas of study and action on the risks resulting from changes in the Earth system. These consider the failure to realise rapid sustainability transitions to date (“physical risk”) and the risks resulting from these transitions going forward (“transition risk”). Yet there is no established agenda on the risks to sustainability transitions from both physical and transition risks and their knock-on consequences. In response, we develop a conceptual socio-ecological systems model that explores how the escalating consequences of changes in the Earth system impacts the ability of societies to undertake work on environmental action that, in turn, re-stabilises natural systems. On one hand, these consequences can spur processes of political, economic, and social change that could accelerate the growth in work done, as societies respond constructively to tackle the causes of a less stable world. 

Laurie Laybourn

Read full article by Laurie Laybourn in Earth Systems Dynamics

More articles

Feb 05 2025

Anthropocene under dark skies: The compounding effects of nuclear winter and overstepped planetary boundaries

by Florian Jehn in EGU…The analysis of global catastrophic events often occurs in isolation, simplifying their study. In reality, risks cascade and...
Feb 04 2025

Climate models can’t explain what’s happening to Earth

by Zoë Schlanger in The Atlantic…Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on.

Jan 24 2025

Braiding indigenous and western knowledge for climate-adapted forests: An ecocultural state of science report

by Cristina Eisenberg et al…Our ecocultural state-of-knowledge report brings together Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and Western Science (WS) to support climate and...
Jan 23 2025

Is the world becoming uninsurable?

by Charles Hugh Smith on Substack…This is not an abstraction, though many are treating it as a policy debate. As noted previously here, the insurance industry is...
Jan 22 2025

Fueling innovation to navigate the wildfire challenge ahead

by Chris Anthony, et al, in Stanford Social Innovation Review..The climate-driven wildfire crisis calls for a comprehensive, cross-sector approach to funding, research,...
Jan 21 2025

IPBES report highlights Indigenous & local knowledge as key to ‘transformative change’

by Sonam Lama Hyolmo in Mongabay…The report identifies three underlying causes of the biodiversity crisis: the disconnection from nature, inequitable power and...
Jan 20 2025

The AMOC Might Be WAY More Unstable Than We Thought…Here’s Why

from PBS Terra…There is a mysterious cold blob in the North Atlantic that could be a warning sign that the largest heat transfer system on the planet, the AMOC,...
Jan 13 2025

Climate change forged a new reality in 2024: ‘This is life now’

by Diana Baptista in Context…In 2024, billions of people endured heatwaves, storms and floods; 2025 is set to be worse as man-made climate change wreaks...
Dec 20 2024

Dancing with a permanent emergency

by Jonathan Rowson in The Joyous Struggle…In the real world, there is scope to change the opponent (whether that is fossil fuel companies, politicians, or...
Dec 19 2024

Three-quarters of the Earth has gotten permanently drier

by Jeffrey Kluger in Time…By century’s end, up to 20% of all Earth’s land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformation, such as forests becoming grasslands,...