Life in the Global Polycrisis
The Long View
New paper: Polycrisis Research & Action Roadmap
by the Cascade Institute, et al….The authors define the core characteristics of polycrisis
(emergent harms, multiple causes, deep uncertainty, systemic context, and new knowledge and action) and
identify gaps, opportunities, and priorities across four dimensions (theoretical foundations, empirical
research, practical applications, community building).
"We cover the polycrisis. News, analysis, & opinion. Science, politics, & culture."
Omega
Pandemics
On the Covid ‘off-ramp’: no tests, isolation or masks
By Emily Baumgaertner in The New York Times…For many, Covid is increasingly regarded like the common cold. A scratchy throat and canceled plans bring a bewildering new critique from friends: You shouldn’t have tested.
Top 6 questions answered about fall vaccines
By Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist…The bottom line is: Get your fall vaccines—it will cut your risk of diseases by half.
WHO leader and Wuhan Institute of Virology collaborator clashed in ‘ugly’ meeting
by Emily Kopp in US Right to Know…Tedros told the lawmakers then that “understanding the origin of COVID is a scientific and moral obligation, and it requires China to cooperate, share data, access and information fully and urgently,” the WHO said.
Polycrisis
New paper: Polycrisis Research & Action Roadmap
by the Cascade Institute, et al….The authors define the core characteristics of polycrisis
(emergent harms, multiple causes, deep uncertainty, systemic context, and new knowledge and action) and
identify gaps, opportunities, and priorities across four dimensions (theoretical foundations, empirical
research, practical applications, community building).
‘Polycrisis’ threatens planetary health; UN calls for innovative solutions
by Sean Mowbray in Mongabay…Environmental, technological and social challenges are colliding to create a global polycrisis. This confluence of issues is in turn placing increased pressure on the already existing environmental challenges of rapid climate change, rampant pollution and biodiversity loss — ultimately threatening planetary health and human well-being.
Are journalists reporting the global polycrisis?
by Gabi Mocatta in Earth Journalism …This study clearly
establishes that
the term ‘global polycrisis’
is not widely recognized,
or used by journalists.
Resilience
Facing global risks with honest hope
From (ASRA) Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment report Facing global risks with honest hope….Transforming Multidimensional
Challenges into Multidimensional
Possibilities
National resilience guidance: A collaborative approach to building resilience
In National resilience guidance, a paper by FEMA.gov…This Guidance is intended to help all individuals, communities, and organizations understand our nation’s Vision for resilience, the key Principles that
must be applied to strengthen resilience, and the Resilience Players and Systems That Contribute to Resilience.
Report of the Roundtable on the Human Future 2024
from the Roundtable on the Human Future 2024…The Roundtable on the Human Future was an online gathering of the world’s most influential
thought-leaders on what is to be done about the human predicament. Recognising that a wide
diversity of opinion and advice exists globally, which is confusing to governments and citizens alike,
it sought common understandings of the nature of the crisis and the solutions it demands.
Environment
Publication: Extreme temperatures and the profitability of large European firms
by Bellocca, Gian Pietro Enzo, et al in e-Archivo…The lack of a clear negative effect of extreme temperatures over firm’s profitability points out one of the reasons why it is so difficult to fight against climate change, while being harmful, it can be profitable.
Canada’s wildfires were a top global emitter last year, study says
by Manuela Andreoni in The New York Times…The blazes produced more planet-warming carbon than almost any country, researchers found. That could upend key calculations on the pace of global warming.
A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing
by UNEP in Navigating New Horizons…As the leading global authority on the environment, the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) plays a critical role in keeping the environment under review and finding solutions that inspire,
inform and enable nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.
ECONOMY
Chartbook 310 The shock of the new: Dollar dominance and modern monetary macro in the 1920s. (Hegemony note 5)
by Adam Tooze in Chartbook…The denaturing of the gold standard and the emergence of the new field of monetary macroeconomics combined to pose the question of global financial leadership in a way it had never been posed before, compounding the shock of discovering that the United States was the obvious answer to that question of leadership. Basic questions of monetary governance would never again have the feeling of stark novelty they had at that moment.
The ‘perfect storm’ of climate risks that is sinking your net worth
by Andrew Behar in Impactalpha…If we don’t all wake up – as a nation – to climate risk, homeowners will soon literally and financially be underwater.
Food as you know it is about to change
by David Wallace-Wells in The New York Times…It can be tempting, in an age of apocalyptic imagination, to picture the most dire future climate scenarios: not just yield declines but mass crop failures, not just price spikes but food shortages, not just worsening hunger but mass famine. In a much hotter world, those will indeed become likelier, particularly if agricultural innovation fails to keep pace with climate change; over a 30-year time horizon, the insurer Lloyd’s recently estimated a 50 percent chance of what it called a “major” global food shock.
Politics
Global trends are polarizing us: Can democracy handle it?
by Richard Heinberg in resilience.org….Today the world faces historically unique stresses that are likely to be increasingly polarizing for many societies. These stresses can be divided into three groups—environmental, economic, and technological. After examining these, we’ll explore two questions: first, is democracy inherently more polarizing than autocratic forms of government? And second, are democracies or autocracies better at handling crises?
Chartbook 307 To live or not to live with polycrisis: The USA, Mexico and the need for a regional policy in Central America and the Caribbean.
by Adam Tooze in Chartbook…What is needed is not more border controls and militarized policing, but a pooling of governmental resources amongst the stronger players in the region including USA, Mexico the richer Caribbean states and Colombia, not to oppose, but to facilitate, support and invest in the extraordinary human energy, grit and determination that is the counterpart to those remittance flows.
Disinformation poses an unprecedented threat in 2024 — and the U.S. is less ready than ever
by Brandy Zadrozny in NBC News…The U.S. presidential election comes at a time of ideal circumstances for disinformation and the people who spread it.
People
The transformative power of intersectionality
by Rana Zincir Celal…..The concept of intersectionality recognizes the multidimensionality of inequality and the interconnection of different forms
of discrimination. It analyzes the role, function and impact of
power structures on discrimination and privilege. An intersectional perspective can be used to draw attention to existing
systems of oppression in society and to challenge, break
through and change them. Intersectionality thus holds the
potential for promoting social justice, solidarity and fairness.
Love in the time of the polycrisis: 21new signs of emergence
by Susan Grelock Yusem in Commonweal.org…..As we live through extremes, like social turmoil, extreme weather, pandemic, and economic instability, we also hold complex emotional experiences: hope and despondency, courage and fear, joy and grief.
Margaret Atwood offers her vision of utopia: The pre-eminent writer of dystopian literature would build dome homes, wear mushroom leather and compost corpses.
Shortly before she turned 83 last month, she taught an eight-week course, “Practical Utopias,” on Disco, an online learning platform in Canada.
Community
Operating theaters, bowling alleys and home cinemas: Not happy with safe rooms, the super-rich are building luxury fortresses
by Simon Usborne on CNN.com…At the richer end of the spectrum, billionaires are increasingly paranoid about threats to their health, whether from bioterror attacks, viral pandemics or old-fashioned heart failures and accidents. Covid gave a big boost to this part of SAFE’s business, which Corbi’s wife Naomi, a registered nurse, now heads up.
Led by Its Youth, U.S. Sinks in World Happiness Report
For the first time since the first World Happiness Report was issued in 2012, the United States was not ranked among the world’s Top 20 happiest countries. The drop was driven by people under 30. The New York Times Read full article in The New York Times
‘Civilizations rise and fall’
by Evan Malmgren in Business Insider…Inside an off-grid community of families preparing for the downfall of America
Culture
An ancient Chinese text that’s surprisingly relevant today
by Richard Heinberg in Resilience.org….I’ll leave the last words to the Old Master, this time from the Bahm translation:
Whenever someone sets out to remold the world, experience teaches that he is bound to fail.
For Nature is already as good as it can be.
It cannot be improved upon.
He who tries to redesign it, spoils it.
He who tries to redirect it, misleads it.
‘I couldn’t believe the data’: how thinking in a foreign language improves decision-making
Research shows people who speak another language are more utilitarian and flexible, less risk-averse and egotistical, and better able to cope with traumatic memories
The Desert of the Anthropocene: An ongoing installation from artist Ravi Agarwal
The long engagement is a part of an ongoing investigation into the current state of the nature, both as a crisis which traverses a political realm, but also a cultural contestation of how ‘nature’ is thought of in the era of the Anthropocene.
Worldviews
Scaling: The state of play in AI
by Ethan Mollick in One Useful Thing…With continued advancements in model architecture and training techniques, we’re approaching a new frontier in AI capabilities. The independent AI agents that tech companies have long promised are likely just around the corner. These systems will be able to handle complex tasks with minimal human oversight, with wide-ranging implications. As the pace of AI development seems more certain to accelerate, we need to prepare for both the opportunities and challenges ahead.
Superbugs ‘could kill 39m people by 2050’ amid rising drug resistance
by Kat Lay in The Guardian…Child deaths from infections see ‘remarkable’ decline but AMR fatalities of over-70s likely to rise by 146%, study finds
Analysis: Drug-resistant infections are on the rise – so why aren’t we getting any new antibiotics?
A few rules for predicting the future by Octavia E. Butler
by Octavia E. Butler in Common Good Collective…So why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child, even though we can’t control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something good. Best to do that for any child.
Bookshelf
Grow that stack by your bedside — check out this selection of some of the most compelling work we’re reading.
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