by Ethan Mollick in One Useful Thing…With continued advancements in model architecture and training techniques, we’re approaching a new frontier in AI capabilities. The independent AI agents that tech companies have long promised are likely just around the corner. These systems will be able to handle complex tasks with minimal human oversight, with wide-ranging implications. As the pace of AI development seems more certain to accelerate, we need to prepare for both the opportunities and challenges ahead.
More from this author
Facing global risks with honest hope
From (ASRA) Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment report Facing global risks with honest hope….Transforming Multidimensional
Challenges into Multidimensional
Possibilities
Superbugs ‘could kill 39m people by 2050’ amid rising drug resistance
by Kat Lay in The Guardian…Child deaths from infections see ‘remarkable’ decline but AMR fatalities of over-70s likely to rise by 146%, study finds
Analysis: Drug-resistant infections are on the rise – so why aren’t we getting any new antibiotics?
Global trends are polarizing us: Can democracy handle it?
by Richard Heinberg in resilience.org….Today the world faces historically unique stresses that are likely to be increasingly polarizing for many societies. These stresses can be divided into three groups—environmental, economic, and technological. After examining these, we’ll explore two questions: first, is democracy inherently more polarizing than autocratic forms of government? And second, are democracies or autocracies better at handling crises?
National resilience guidance: A collaborative approach to building resilience
In National resilience guidance, a paper by FEMA.gov…This Guidance is intended to help all individuals, communities, and organizations understand our nation’s Vision for resilience, the key Principles that
must be applied to strengthen resilience, and the Resilience Players and Systems That Contribute to Resilience.
Publication: Extreme temperatures and the profitability of large European firms
by Bellocca, Gian Pietro Enzo, et al in e-Archivo…The lack of a clear negative effect of extreme temperatures over firm’s profitability points out one of the reasons why it is so difficult to fight against climate change, while being harmful, it can be profitable.
A few rules for predicting the future by Octavia E. Butler
by Octavia E. Butler in Common Good Collective…So why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child, even though we can’t control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something good. Best to do that for any child.
The U.S. needs to pay more attention to electronic warfare
by Steven Glinert in Noahpinion…Electronic warfare (EW) is a bit of a sleeper in the US arsenal. The US invented its modern form and has used it to great effect in every war we’ve fought, especially since 1990. Indeed, if you want to know what the literal “war” in “chip wars” is, it’s this. The US spends about as much on it as its much cooler and flashier younger sibling, cyberwarfare (around $5b) and spending is due to increase. Likewise, the Chinese think of it as essential to their victory in a potential war against the US. Finally, it has become a defining aspect of the war in Ukraine, with Russian and Ukrainian forces playing a cat and mouse game between drones and electronic attacks.
The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it
by Max Roser in Our World in Data…Very few think the world is making progress. In this article, we look at the history of global living conditions and show that the world has made immense progress in important aspects.
On the Covid ‘off-ramp’: no tests, isolation or masks
By Emily Baumgaertner in The New York Times…For many, Covid is increasingly regarded like the common cold. A scratchy throat and canceled plans bring a bewildering new critique from friends: You shouldn’t have tested.