Navigating the polycrisis–life in turbulent times

Navigating the polycrisis–life in turbulent times

By Michael Lerner, Angle of Vision…The polycrisis has many names—cascading crises, the metacrisis, the permacrisis, the great unraveling, the great simplification, “the end of the world as we know it” [TEOTWAWKI], and more. In Latin America it’s called “eco-social collapse.” The French call it “collapsologie.” Or one can simply call it turbulent times or a rapidly changing world.

The surprising thing A.I. engineers will tell you if you let them

by Ezra Klein, The New York Times…This is an example of “alignment risk,” the danger that what we want the systems to do and what they will actually do could diverge, and perhaps do so violently. Curbing alignment risk requires curbing the systems themselves, not just the ways we permit people to use them.

This changes everything

This changes everything

In a 2022 survey, A.I. experts were asked, “What probability do you put on human inability to control future advanced A.I. systems causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?”

Climate, fiction, and the future

Artists have a long history of channeling social change into their works, shaping our cultures, societies, and institutions. When informed by science, this becomes a powerful tool for action.

Let’s imagine we knew exactly how the pandemic started

In a March Guardian editorial that similarly treated the matter of origin as an arcane sideshow, the paper emphasized expanding disease surveillance, protecting natural habitats, reforming factory farming and ramping up lab safety — and concluded that all “this, rather than the blame game, is what politicians should prioritize.”

The Long View Vol 22

The Long View Vol 22

Since the Long View started as a newsletter almost 2 years ago, our aim has been to curate the highest quality polycrisis news, research, and analysis to support this growing learning community. As this polycrisis work has gone global, so has the volume of content, debate over its relevance, and evolving language. Here are this month’s top picks of polycrisis news, curated by Omega Program Director Stanley Wu. It was quite a month, worldwide. These selections were chosen to help foster thinking about these times and how we consider resilience in light of the global polycrisis.

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Jul 06 2023

Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

by Dr. Michael Lawrence at The Cascade Institute….. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with...
Sep 18 2024

Scaling: The state of play in AI

by Ethan Mollick in One Useful Thing…With continued advancements in model architecture and training techniques, we’re approaching a new frontier in AI...
Sep 18 2024

Facing global risks with honest hope

From (ASRA) Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment report Facing global risks with honest hope….Transforming Multidimensional Challenges into Multidimensional...
Sep 18 2024

Superbugs ‘could kill 39m people by 2050’ amid rising drug resistance

by Kat Lay in The Guardian…Child deaths from infections see ‘remarkable’ decline but AMR fatalities of over-70s likely to rise by 146%, study finds Analysis:...
Sep 16 2024

Global trends are polarizing us: Can democracy handle it?

by Richard Heinberg in resilience.org….Today the world faces historically unique stresses that are likely to be increasingly polarizing for many societies. These...
Sep 12 2024

National resilience guidance: A collaborative approach to building resilience

In National resilience guidance, a paper by FEMA.gov…This Guidance is intended to help all individuals, communities, and organizations understand our nation’s...
Sep 12 2024

Publication: Extreme temperatures and the profitability of large European firms

by Bellocca, Gian Pietro Enzo, et al in e-Archivo…The lack of a clear negative effect of extreme temperatures over firm’s profitability points out one of...
Sep 12 2024

A few rules for predicting the future by Octavia E. Butler

by Octavia E. Butler in Common Good Collective…So why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is...
Sep 12 2024

The U.S. needs to pay more attention to electronic warfare

by Steven Glinert in Noahpinion…Electronic warfare (EW) is a bit of a sleeper in the US arsenal. The US invented its modern form and has used it to great effect...
Sep 12 2024

The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it

by Max Roser in Our World in Data…Very few think the world is making progress. In this article, we look at the history of global living conditions and show that...
Aug 29 2024

On the Covid ‘off-ramp’: no tests, isolation or masks

By Emily Baumgaertner in The New York Times…For many, Covid is increasingly regarded like the common cold. A scratchy throat and canceled plans bring a...