A few rules for predicting the future by Octavia E. Butler

by Octavia E. Butler in Common Good Collective…So why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child, even though we can’t control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something good. Best to do that for any child.

The U.S. needs to pay more attention to electronic warfare

by Steven Glinert in Noahpinion…Electronic warfare (EW) is a bit of a sleeper in the US arsenal. The US invented its modern form and has used it to great effect in every war we’ve fought, especially since 1990. Indeed, if you want to know what the literal “war” in “chip wars” is, it’s this. The US spends about as much on it as its much cooler and flashier younger sibling, cyberwarfare (around $5b) and spending is due to increase. Likewise, the Chinese think of it as essential to their victory in a potential war against the US. Finally, it has become a defining aspect of the war in Ukraine, with Russian and Ukrainian forces playing a cat and mouse game between drones and electronic attacks.

New paper: Polycrisis Research & Action Roadmap

by the Cascade Institute, et al….The authors define the core characteristics of polycrisis
(emergent harms, multiple causes, deep uncertainty, systemic context, and new knowledge and action) and
identify gaps, opportunities, and priorities across four dimensions (theoretical foundations, empirical
research, practical applications, community building).

More in this tag

Jul 06 2023

Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

by Dr. Michael Lawrence at The Cascade Institute….. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with...
Feb 07 2025

From risk to resilience: Wildfires and the insurance industry’s climate reckoning

Doug Parsons interviews Dr. Carolyn Kousky in America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast…Carolyn shares insights on how the industry can respond to these...
Feb 06 2025

China’s ageing population: A demographic crisis is unfolding for Xi

by Laura Bicker in BBC…Over the next decade, about 300 million people, who are currently aged 50 to 60, are set to leave the Chinese workforce. This is the...
Feb 05 2025

Anthropocene under dark skies: The compounding effects of nuclear winter and overstepped planetary boundaries

by Florian Jehn in EGU…The analysis of global catastrophic events often occurs in isolation, simplifying their study. In reality, risks cascade and...
Feb 04 2025

Climate models can’t explain what’s happening to Earth

by Zoë Schlanger in The Atlantic…Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on.

Feb 03 2025

Strategy 2030 mid-term review and forecast

by Solferino Academy…“We are too often still operating from fixed mindsets and with fixed responses rather than recognising the interconnected nature of issues we...
Jan 31 2025

Reasons for hope in 2025

by Suzette Brooks Masters in Fulcrum…My way of not giving in to despair and apathy amid all this uncertainty is to look for sources of hope, to find in...
Jan 31 2025

The incredible, world-altering ‘Black Swan’ events that could upend life in 2025

From Politico Magazine…15 futurists, foreign policy analysts and other prognosticators provide some explosive potential scenarios for the new year.

Jan 30 2025

A food apocalypse is coming; There is no plan to feed Britain in a crisis

by James Rebanks in UnHerd…The answer is to be ready, with a more resilient and secure food system before something goes wrong. We need an inspired farming system...
Jan 28 2025

Certainty is boring

by Jeanette Bronee in her blog…We may never know exactly what to do to meet the future and its constantly changing reality, but aligning with what matters becomes...
Jan 28 2025

The next financial crisis: Insurance

by Robert Kuttner in The American Prospect… Increasing damage from fires, hurricanes, and floods will destabilize a lightly regulated industry—and spill over into...