The purpose of scenario development is preparation, not prediction. This readying benefits any eventualities, beyond the handful of future scenarios imagined.
As we evaluate the opportunities and risks from our scenarios, we scrutinize their potential consequences. We can then build resilience to sustain even the most serious outcomes.
Foresight does not hold a crystal ball. It prepares you for the swerves. The future of prediction is imagination.
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Nov
21
2024
Extreme weather cost $2tn globally over past decade, report finds
by Ajit Niranjan in The Guardian…US suffered greatest economic losses, report commissioned by International Chamber of Commerce finds, followed by China and...
Oct
31
2024
Insurable losses from natural disasters – how have the numbers changed over the years?
by Terry Gangcuanco in Insurance Business Magazine….Canadian insurtech MyChoice has released a new study showing a sharp rise in insurable losses linked to...
Aug
22
2024
Chartbook 310 The shock of the new: Dollar dominance and modern monetary macro in the 1920s. (Hegemony note 5)
by Adam Tooze in Chartbook…The denaturing of the gold standard and the emergence of the new field of monetary macroeconomics combined to pose the question of...
Aug
10
2024
The ‘perfect storm’ of climate risks that is sinking your net worth
by Andrew Behar in Impactalpha…If we don’t all wake up – as a nation – to climate risk, homeowners will soon literally and financially be underwater.
Aug
01
2024
Food as you know it is about to change
by David Wallace-Wells in The New York Times…It can be tempting, in an age of apocalyptic imagination, to picture the most dire future climate scenarios: not just...
Jul
25
2024
Paraphilanthropy: Giving money its freedom papers
by Bayo Akomolafe….What addressing philanthropy’s colonial legacies asks of this moment.
Jul
25
2024
The status of U.S. oil production: 2024 update everything shines by dimming
by Roger Blanchard in Resilience.org…The fact that U.S. oil production reached a very high level in 2023 and that so much of the production came from Texas made...
Jul
25
2024
A big solar company may be collapsing
by Alana Semuels in Time….One of the largest residential solar installers in the U.S. appears to be on the cusp of failing, the latest sign of the troubled...
Jul
13
2024
Is there a future in the doomsday economy?
by Alexander Nazaryan in The New York Times….With Fortitude Ranch, the entrepreneur Drew Miller is betting on franchised timeshares for people who are worried...
Jul
08
2024
The status of U.S. oil production: 2024 update everything shines by dimming
by Roger Blanchard in Resilience.org…To maximize profitability of deep water fields, the industry cranks up production rapidly to a high production level, say...