The purpose of scenario development is preparation, not prediction. This readying benefits any eventualities, beyond the handful of future scenarios imagined.
As we evaluate the opportunities and risks from our scenarios, we scrutinize their potential consequences. We can then build resilience to sustain even the most serious outcomes.
Foresight does not hold a crystal ball. It prepares you for the swerves. The future of prediction is imagination.
More articles
Mar
12
2025
The impossible math of philanthropy
by Hans Taparia and Bruce Buchanan in The New York Times…With one hand they generate supernormal profits by plundering society, and with the other they dole out a...
Mar
10
2025
What should philanthropy do about the US freeze on aid?
by Benjamin Bellegy in Alliance Magazine…We can worry that some philanthropies might reorientate their giving to align with the new zeitgeist, for instance...
Feb
28
2025
The impossible math of philanthropy
by Hans Taparia and Bruce Buchanan in The New York Times…More often than not, charities work to mitigate harms caused by business. Every year, corporations...
Feb
11
2025
Rolling out the doughnut
in Beshara Magazine…We talk to Leonora Grcheva of the Doughnut Economics Action Lab about how Kate Raworth’s innovative economic theory is being translated into...
Jan
30
2025
A food apocalypse is coming; There is no plan to feed Britain in a crisis
by James Rebanks in UnHerd…The answer is to be ready, with a more resilient and secure food system before something goes wrong. We need an inspired farming system...
Jan
28
2025
The next financial crisis: Insurance
by Robert Kuttner in The American Prospect… Increasing damage from fires, hurricanes, and floods will destabilize a lightly regulated industry—and spill over into...
Dec
21
2024
Responding to platform firm power: differing national responses
by Angela Garcia Calvo in New Political Economy…In the second half of the 1990s, the commercial internet emerged as a remarkable connectivity tool that promised...
Dec
11
2024
Society is right on track for a global collapse, new study of infamous 1970s report finds
by Brandon Specktor in LiveScience.com…A steep downturn in human population and quality of life could be coming in the 2040s, the report finds.
Nov
21
2024
Extreme weather cost $2tn globally over past decade, report finds
by Ajit Niranjan in The Guardian…US suffered greatest economic losses, report commissioned by International Chamber of Commerce finds, followed by China and...
Oct
31
2024
Insurable losses from natural disasters – how have the numbers changed over the years?
by Terry Gangcuanco in Insurance Business Magazine….Canadian insurtech MyChoice has released a new study showing a sharp rise in insurable losses linked to...