Scaling: The state of play in AI

by Ethan Mollick in One Useful Thing…With continued advancements in model architecture and training techniques, we’re approaching a new frontier in AI capabilities. The independent AI agents that tech companies have long promised are likely just around the corner. These systems will be able to handle complex tasks with minimal human oversight, with wide-ranging implications. As the pace of AI development seems more certain to accelerate, we need to prepare for both the opportunities and challenges ahead.

Facing global risks with honest hope

From (ASRA) Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment report Facing global risks with honest hope….Transforming Multidimensional
Challenges into Multidimensional
Possibilities

Global trends are polarizing us: Can democracy handle it?

by Richard Heinberg in resilience.org….Today the world faces historically unique stresses that are likely to be increasingly polarizing for many societies. These stresses can be divided into three groups—environmental, economic, and technological. After examining these, we’ll explore two questions: first, is democracy inherently more polarizing than autocratic forms of government? And second, are democracies or autocracies better at handling crises?

A few rules for predicting the future by Octavia E. Butler

by Octavia E. Butler in Common Good Collective…So why try to predict the future at all if it’s so difficult, so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child, even though we can’t control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something good. Best to do that for any child.

The U.S. needs to pay more attention to electronic warfare

by Steven Glinert in Noahpinion…Electronic warfare (EW) is a bit of a sleeper in the US arsenal. The US invented its modern form and has used it to great effect in every war we’ve fought, especially since 1990. Indeed, if you want to know what the literal “war” in “chip wars” is, it’s this. The US spends about as much on it as its much cooler and flashier younger sibling, cyberwarfare (around $5b) and spending is due to increase. Likewise, the Chinese think of it as essential to their victory in a potential war against the US. Finally, it has become a defining aspect of the war in Ukraine, with Russian and Ukrainian forces playing a cat and mouse game between drones and electronic attacks.

More in this tag

Jul 06 2023

Global polycrisis: The causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement

by Dr. Michael Lawrence at The Cascade Institute….. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fast-moving trigger events combines with...
Feb 14 2025

Creative but disorganised: why philanthropy won’t solve the polycrisis

by Barry Knight in Alliance Magazine…‘There are massive problems; climate, conflict, the economy are chief among them. Our international system for dealing...
Feb 13 2025

Strategic foresight toolkit for resilient public policy

from OECD…..A Comprehensive Foresight Methodology to Support Sustainable and Future-Ready Public Policy

Feb 12 2025

Playing with Time: Introducing a foresight practice to build hopeful futures through transformative stewardship

by Cat Tully in School of International Futures (SOIF)…My hope is that I inspire you to join in: to act, connect, support, and become part of a global movement...
Feb 11 2025

Rolling out the doughnut

in Beshara Magazine…We talk to Leonora Grcheva of the Doughnut Economics Action Lab about how Kate Raworth’s innovative economic theory is being translated into...
Feb 10 2025

Philanthropy and digital civil society: Blueprint 2025

by Lucy Bernholz in Blueprint 2025…Philanthropy and Digital Civil Society: Blueprint is an annual industry forecast about the ways we use private resources for...
Feb 10 2025

Futures Lab

in Futures Lab report in Horizon 2045…We look for evidence of the future that’s coming and in some cases is already here.

Feb 07 2025

From risk to resilience: Wildfires and the insurance industry’s climate reckoning

Doug Parsons interviews Dr. Carolyn Kousky in America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast…Carolyn shares insights on how the industry can respond to these...
Feb 06 2025

China’s ageing population: A demographic crisis is unfolding for Xi

by Laura Bicker in BBC…Over the next decade, about 300 million people, who are currently aged 50 to 60, are set to leave the Chinese workforce. This is the...
Feb 05 2025

Anthropocene under dark skies: The compounding effects of nuclear winter and overstepped planetary boundaries

by Florian Jehn in EGU…The analysis of global catastrophic events often occurs in isolation, simplifying their study. In reality, risks cascade and...
Feb 04 2025

Climate models can’t explain what’s happening to Earth

by Zoë Schlanger in The Atlantic…Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on.